CORNUCOPIA OF COINCIDENCE AND TIMING

Well, Mr. Rogers, (a popular American children's show, "Mr. Rogers Neighborhood"), let's look at the simultaneity of the many events occurring in Lebanon's "neighborhood" as Lebanon goes up in flames for the umpteenth time.
For a little historical reminder, first, since Americans, in particular, and others, it seems, as well, suffer from that unique disease called historical amnesia.
Who was it, just recently, within only the past two years, (altho, I know, events are moving so fast these days that it seems like ages ago), instigated the previous military provocation in Lebanon that enabled Israel, first, and then, subsequently, UN/NATO/Western troops to insert themselves into Lebanon?
Remember the Israeli invasion into Lebanon, compliments of the activities of you-know-who.
And, just before that, how Syria was militarily extracted from Lebanon, the enabler of all that is/was to follow.
Without Syria's extraction from Lebanon, none of this could/would have been possible.
So, once again, both Iran and Hezbollah should be thanking American tax dollars for opening a space for their shenanigans.
Hezbollah, Sadr, Iran are the most ungrateful and deceitful recipients of American taxpayer largess on the planet.
At least, Israel and Egypt acknowledge their dependence.
Now, fast forward to the present.
Remember my posts about Sadr and mopping up?
Well, guess who just now is signing an agreement with the Maliki government?
The Butcher of Baghdad, the supposedly invincible, popular, militia. He/they will no longer be the ultimate authority in Basra, or, anywhere elsewhere, for that matter.
It's being spun, of course, by just about everybody in various ways.
But, this is the upshot.
Next, comes the opening of the Mosul, Kirkuk battle against an escalating backdrop of Turkey's independent military currently bombing the PKK in the Kurdistan region.
Then, the military situation in Abkhazia-Georgia-Russia escalates.
The Russian, Red Army parades through the streets of Moscow.
The Serb-Kosovo crisis mounts:

www.en.rian.ru/analysis/20080509/106995234.html

Additionally, and equally important, class conflict escalates from Turkey through and around to Egypt.

Turkey's privatizing, Islamic AKP government continues to be threatened with dissolution and enormous, internal resistance.

And, in the latest from Egypt, just before the World Economic Forum in Sharm El Sheik, in which Iraq is participating, more Egyptian protest:

www.thedailynewsegypt.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=13613

So, what has Hezbollah accomplished in Lebanon this time around, aside from its own, self-serving, economic interests?

First, of course, Hezbollah's military siege has completely overshadowed and dissolved any positive, strategic, class unity and resistance that could have emanated from Lebanon or Lebanon's general strike.

That has gone up in smoke, literally. Towards the purpose of unity and the strategic, vanguard role played by the ideologically defined, self-conscious, articulate Pan-Arab Socialist movement and why it's defeat and suppression is essential both now, as it raises its 'ugly' head again, and before, the following, as usual, good analysis from the inveterate Iraq-in-exile journalist and commentator:

www.arabwomanblues.blogspot.com/2008/05/beirut-coup-de-blues.html

This is in contradistinction to our client states.

Our very busy Saudi Prince Alwaleed Talal has just donated, or, shall we say, bought off/recycled, $20 Million to Harvard University and another $20 Million to Georgetown to advance "Islamic" studies and "Muslim understanding":

www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20080509142928/lok142900080509

And

www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20080510120701

Couple the Pan-Arabism, instead, defined above together with Turkey's self-conscious resistance, articulate Left and independent military and the ramifications and repercussions become abundantly clear.

Second result from recent Lebanon events.

Hezbollah, like Sadr's militia, before, due to these most blatant actions, can now be certified a "terrorist" organization, supported by Iran, and, by association, Syria.

Eventually, Hezbollah's fate will be something akin to Sadr, having served their useful purpose.

However, I say eventually, because, a disturbing coincidence of military developments exists, above, a list which is not even comprehensive.

My concern is the possibility of an "October Surprise" in this year's American Presidential election. All of the above timed to explode, erupt, ignite, escalate, more or less simultaneously, thereby overcoming all internal and external opposition, everywhere, propelling everyone into a greater, all encompassing conflagration. It's a possibility. One that has occurred to me and must be watched and considered.